1976, at the age of seventy-nine, after a lifetime of serving in the British army, where he held high positions and mingled with presidents and kings, General John Bagot Glubb, known as Glubb Pasha, wrote a short but insightful essay about the life cycle of empires titled The Fate of Empires.
In this little book, Glubb refers to an idea that originated in ancient Roman and Mesoamerican cultures. These ancient civilizations noticed that everything in nature is cyclical, and since human history is part of nature, it too must be cyclical and go through constant and recurring phases. For example, each year goes through a cycle of seasons – spring, summer, autumn, and winter; each human life cycle – unless interrupted by unfortunate circumstances or illness – goes through phases of birth, childhood, youth, adulthood, old age, death (and rebirth?). In the same way, human history also goes through repeating phases, and Glubb emphasizes In his book, Glubb specifically focuses on the life cycle of empires, or what we would now call superpowers. According to Glubb, each superpower that emerges onto the stage of history has a unique and enormous impact on the world, aiding in the evolution of humanity. After an average lifespan of two hundred and fifty years, it disappears from the global stage, making way for another empire. Like a living being, an empire goes through different phases or “ages” of development: the age of pioneers, the age of conquest, the age of trade, the age of wealth, the age of intellect, and finally, the age of decadence. This can be compared to the rising and setting of the sun, where the sun reaches its peak between the age of trade and the age of wealth. It is interesting to note that digital games, such as Sid Meier’s Civilization, where players develop their own culture over time, are intuitively developed in a very similar way. Let us examine each of these ages in more detail. In the age of pioneers, relatively unknown people step onto the stage. the course of history, with great initiative, optimism, and energy. They typically fight against older empires and nations around them and take over their cities and networks. There is a strong self-confidence, which is manifested through strong, insightful, and energetic leaders. Whether it’s the Mongols, Arabs, or Americans, it is difficult to rationally explain the emergence of a new empire and the transformation of a people from some backwater into a worldwide phenomenon.
The age of conquest – a previously poor and unknown nation that has entered the stage of history now becomes a nation of conquerors. They show immense courage and organization, training in the art of war in ingenuity, The freshness of the empire allows for new ways of working, allowing for originality and adaptability.
The era of trade – vast land areas enable easier trade as there is no need to cross many borders. Imagine, for example, moving oranges from the southern American state of Florida to Chicago in the north, 1900 km away. If each American state had its own state borders, the truck driver would have to comply with the regulations, taxes, and permits of each state, instead of one federal authority as it is today. It would be much more difficult and expensive. For this reason, an empire enables easier trade. At one point in history, for example, a Roman official could travel for six months without even leaving the Roman Empire.
Trade, by its nature, also promotes the spread of knowledge, art, and wealth, as well as the development of technology. In this era of empire, trade initiative is celebrated alongside courage, patriotism, and artistry. with dedication to duty. Education shapes strong individuals who aim to serve their nation to the best of their abilities.
The era of wealth – The transition has occurred, a turnaround has been made. As trade increases, a new generation of merchants emerges, who attach no importance to old values of honor and glory, but only place value on financial gains.
There seems to be no doubt that money is the factor causing the decline of this strong, brave, and confident people. (…) The first way in which wealth harms the nation is moral.
People seek money for themselves, not for their country or community, and the goal of the young is no longer fame, honor, or service, but money. As a result, the kingdom is growing defensive, relying on external or hired mercenaries to defend its borders. Expansion is no longer sought, but rather maintaining the status quo. Heroism becomes a thing of the past, and is even considered immoral to some extent.
The era of intellect – wealthy young people now aim The aim is to acquire knowledge and academic achievements that lead to new discoveries and technological progress. In a kind of nostalgic daydreaming, intellectuals begin to reflect, document, and record the history of the empire. A dangerous byproduct of intellect is the belief that intellect alone can solve the world’s problems. Every small endeavor requires a certain degree of self-sacrifice and service from its members for its survival. (…). The impression that the situation can be saved through mental pondering, without selflessness or human dedication, can only lead to collapse.
The era of decadence – the empire is aging… Civil misunderstandings arise. The ship is sinking, and instead of collaborating on its repair or building a new one, political factions fight over the remains. Immigrants are flooding the cities. Memories of old rivalries resurface. In response to the empire’s downfall, helpless citizens react with aggression or a “after me, the deluge” mentality, creating an atmosphere of Consumerism and recklessness prevail. People live for themselves and for the moment, thereby accelerating the decline of the empire.
Somewhere, perhaps, a new empire is being born…
No model can fully describe reality, and this model, like any other, is an approximation of the truth. However, it can offer us insights into certain realities. By studying history and observing the world around us, do countries and nations go through life stages just like us individuals? And if so, in which stage is our civilization today? And more importantly, what can we do about it in the present moment? Can we save the empire from its downfall or mitigate its collapse… or possibly plant the seeds for something new and better? Whatever we do, it is important not to succumb to pessimism and despair. It is better to make a small positive impact than to watch life pass by from the comfort of our armchairs.
Perhaps fate cannot be changed, but how we react to it is within our hands.